Optimal control and numerical methods for hybrid stochastic SIS models

This work focuses on optimal controls of a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models under regime switching. By assuming that a decision maker can influence the infectivity period, our aim is to minimize the expected discounted cost due to illness, medical treatment, and the adverse effect on the society. In addition, a model with the incorporation of vaccination is proposed. Numerical schemes are developed by approximating the continuous-time dynamics using Markov chain approximation methods. It is demonstrated that the approximation schemes converge to the optimal strategy as the mesh size goes to zero. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate our results.     

基于改进SIR模型的知识密集型企业隐性知识转移研究

通过对比分析传染病传染机制与隐性知识的转移过程,引入SIR模型,根据隐性知识转移的特点对SIR模型进行改进,并在组织遗忘视角下,将员工知识遗忘细分为主动遗忘和被动遗忘,建立知识密集型企业隐性知识转移模型.而后,通过Matlab对该模型的演化函数进行模拟,分析知识接收方占比、知识转移能力、知识遗忘率及核心员工流失率对知识密集型企业隐性知识转移的影响.最后,基于模拟分析结果,为提升知识密集型企业隐性知识转移效益提出相应策略.     

Global stability of a multistrain SIS model with superinfection and patch structure

We study the global stability of a multistrain SIS model with superinfection and patch structure. We establish an iterative procedure to obtain a sequence of threshold parameters. By a repeated application of a result by Takeuchi et al. [Nonlinear Anal Real World Appl. 2006;7:235–247], we show that these parameters completely determine the global dynamics of the system: for any number of patches and strains with different infectivities, any subset of the strains can stably coexist depending on the particular choice of the parameters.     

物理化学全线上教学的策略与实践

Remote teaching and learning have been adopted during the COVID-19 outbreak. In this particular period of time, a totally-online-teaching strategy was implemented by the teaching team of physical chemistry in Tianjin University. With the enrichment of learning resources, the optimization of the inspectors' teaching skills, as well as the elaborated managements of the whole learning process, the course has been given online successfully, though it is thought unsuitable for online teaching due to the abstruse theory and complex mathematical treatments involved in teaching. Both the central position of student and the leading role of teacher are greatly promoted in the newly developed totally-online-teaching process. The experiences obtained in this teaching process will lay great impact on teaching mode innovation in the future.     

Multistrain edge‐based compartmental model on networks

Multistrain diseases, which are infected through individual contacts, pose severe public health threat nowadays. In this paper, we build competitive and mutative two‐strain edge‐based compartmental models using probability generation function (PGF) and pair approximation (PA). Both of them are ordinary differential equations. Their basic reproduction numbers and final size formulas are explicitly derived. We show that the formula gives a unique positive final epidemic size when the reproduction number is larger than unity. We further consider competitive and mutative multistrain diseases spreading models and compute their basic reproduction numbers. We perform numerical simulations that show some dynamical properties of the competitive and mutative two‐strain models.     

Optimal strategy of vaccination and treatment in an SIRS model with Markovian switching

Medical treatment and vaccination decisions are often sequential and uncertain. Markov decision process is an appropriate means to model and handle such stochastic dynamic decisions. This paper studies the near‐optimality of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model that incorporates vaccination and saturated treatment with regime switching. The stochastic model takes white noises and color noise into account. We first prove some priori estimates of the susceptible, infected, and recovered populations. Moreover, we establish some sufficient and necessary conditions of the near‐optimality by Pontryagin stochastic maximum principle. Our results show that the two kinds of environmental noises have great impacts on the infectious diseases. Finally, we illustrate our conclusions through numerical simulations.     

Ergodic stationary distribution and practical application of a hybrid stochastic cholera transmission model with waning vaccine-induced immunity under nonlinear regime switching

Considering the effect of stochasticity including white noise and colored noise, this paper aims to study a hybrid stochastic cholera epidemic model with waning vaccine-induced immunity and nonlinear telegraph perturbations. First, we derive a critical value ${?}_0^C$ related to the basic reproduction number ${?}_0$ of the deterministic model. The key aim of this paper is to generalize the θ-stochastic criterion method proposed by the recent work (Han et al. in Chaos Solit Fract 140:110238, 2020) to eliminate nonlinear telegraph perturbations. Next, via constructing several θ-stochastic Lyapunov functions and using the generalized method, we further prove that the stochastic model have a unique ergodic stationary distribution under ${?}_0^C>1$. Results show that the prevention and control of cholera epidemic depend on low transmission rate and small telegraph perturbations. Finally, the corresponding numerical simulations are performed to illustrate our analytical results and a practical application on the Somalia cholera outbreak is shown at the end of this paper.     

Heterogeneous virus propagation in networks: a theoretical study

The node‐based epidemic modeling is an effective approach to the understanding of the impact of the structure of the propagation network on the epidemics of electronic virus. In view of the heterogeneity of the propagation network, a heterogeneous node‐based SIRS model is proposed. Theoretical analysis shows that the maximum eigenvalue of a matrix related to the model determines whether viruses tend to extinction or persist. When viruses persist, the connectedness of the propagation network implies the existence and uniqueness of a viral equilibrium, and a set of sufficient conditions for the global stability of the viral equilibrium are given. Numerical examples verify the correctness of our results. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monotonicity,uniqueness, and stability of traveling waves in a nonlocal reaction‐diffusion system with delay

The purpose of this paper is to study the traveling wave solutions of a nonlocal reaction‐diffusion system with delay arising from the spread of an epidemic by oral‐faecal transmission. Under monostable and quasimonotone it is well known that the system has a minimal wave speed c* of traveling wave fronts. In this paper, we first prove the monotonicity and uniqueness of traveling waves with speed c ?c _?. Then we show that the traveling wave fronts with speed c >c _? are exponentially asymptotically stable.